Peace on the Peninsula: Strengthening Global Security Through Mutual Cooperation

Lindsay Weinmann - Security Leadership Program

The 38th Parallel

Trump calls North Korea 'wacko' for public opinion but acknowledges they're ‘not a bunch of dummies' when it comes to things that go boom. The President understands this distinction accurately, but his approach toward the Hermit Kingdom is all wrong. While 'rogue states' – those developing weapons of mass destruction or sponsoring terrorism – are often seen as irrational, they are, in fact, strategic in their actions, as shown by North Korea. To achieve lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. should move away from strict sanctions and the goal of complete denuclearization, focusing instead on mutual cooperation for long-term diplomacy.

The Rationality of Kim’s Regime

In international relations, “rationality” means that countries act based on what they believe will best protect their interests. For North Korea, nuclear weapons are essential to survival. Developing them ensures no attack on its leadership, as it would risk global conflict. Nuclear weapons are thus a tool for security and maintaining its position in the world. If U.S. diplomats treat North Korea as irrational, they risk misunderstanding its motives, raising tensions, missing negotiation opportunities, and hindering future diplomatic relations. In short, labeling North Korea as irrational would cause the U.S. to be irrational in itself. 

The Kim regime has built a strategically minded state, maintaining a family reign since 1948. Despite sanctions, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons and continues to challenge the U.S., the world’s greatest power, in its efforts to contain it. The regime shows no plans of collapsing, highlighting the need to reassess failed U.S. policies and identify a new path forward.

Failed U.S. Policies 

An evaluation of the past three U.S. administrations—Obama, Trump, and Biden—reveals how each overlooked the rationality behind North Korea’s actions, failing to address its nuclear ambitions and secure lasting diplomatic progress. 

• Strategic Patience: Obama’s policy used escalating sanctions, such as investment bans and blacklisting officials, in hopes of pushing North Korea to negotiate. Yet, by relying on the irrational belief that North Korea would collapse after Kim Jong-il’s death, the policy failed to stop the regime’s nuclear programs and only strengthened its resolve, worsening global relations.

• Maximum Pressure and Engagement: Trump's approach, which included three summits with Kim, failed due to inflexibility on both sides. The lack of progressive cooperation deepened isolation and left key demands of both countries unmet. A clear example was Trump's insistence on complete denuclearization at the Hanoi Summit, which led to the breakdown of negotiations. 

• Practical Diplomacy: Biden sought balance but missed key opportunities to engage North Korea, especially as the pandemic worsened tensions. Trying to find middle ground between Trump’s hardline approach and Obama’s passivity, the strategy failed to act at the right time, leaving North Korea more isolated and further from U.S. influence.

Each administration's approach fell short due to a lack of engagement, unrealistic assumptions, or poor timing, deepening North Korea's isolation and nuclear ambitions. U.S. relations with the Korean Peninsula are vital for national security, affecting denuclearization, the Russo-Ukrainian War, strategic interests in Asia, and humanitarian concerns. These issues raise the risk of global conflict, increase military costs, and disrupt the economy. They also impact safety, jobs, and daily life, while shaping U.S. influence and commitment to democracy and human rights.

Policy Recommendations

There is hope for peace on the peninsula, but achieving it requires careful consideration by the incoming administration.  

• Moderate Rhetoric: Trump should soften MAGA rhetoric to avoid alienating allies and maintain the strength of ROK-US relations, while honoring defense commitments and troop stationing in South Korea.

• Host a Summit: Trump should host a new summit with South Korea and Japan to reinforce regional stability, especially as all three countries navigate domestic political changes and leadership transitions. South Korea, with its cultural roots and proximity to North Korea, offers crucial insights that should be valued alongside U.S. priorities. Collaborating more closely with South Korea in North Korea diplomacy will strengthen the alliance and improve the chances for a sustainable solution.

• Ease Sanctions: The U.S. should consider easing economic sanctions not related to arms sales and dual-use materials to foster engagement with North Korea. This could help reassess ineffective measures that have failed to change the regime's behavior and reduce the harm done to North Korean civilians, who have suffered from sanctions on vital sectors like agriculture, energy, and textiles, and have had their basic human rights violated.

• No More Complete Denuclearization Talk: The U.S. should move away from the unrealistic goal of complete denuclearization and recognize North Korea’s nuclear status. Complete denuclearization is non-negotiable for North Korea, just as it would be for the U.S. Continuing to insist on this demand wastes resources and hinders progress. Instead, the U.S. should adopt a pragmatic approach aimed at reducing North Korea's nuclear arsenal through flexible diplomacy, paving the way for constructive dialogue and a realistic path toward normalized relations.

• Adopt Mutual Cooperation: The U.S. should focus on long-term engagement with North Korea, rather than getting caught up in short-term, back-and-forth actions. This approach, also known as diffuse reciprocity, emphasizes building positive relationships through ongoing engagement, which could help reduce tensions and promote understanding over time. While there are still risks, this strategy offers a better chance for progress and stability.

Peace is to Be Progressive

To conclude, the U.S. must rethink its strategy toward North Korea, shifting away from rigid demands like complete denuclearization and embracing a flexible, pragmatic approach. By moderating rhetoric, easing sanctions, and prioritizing long-term engagement, Trump’s administration can open the door to productive diplomacy and better safeguard global stability. This adaptive strategy will not only address the challenges posed by North Korea’s nuclear ambitions but also pave the way for a more secure future, both for the U.S., the Korean Peninsula, and the international community.